Tendance Coatesy

Left Socialist Blog

Podemos in Free-Fall in Spanish Opinion Polls.

with 10 comments


Populist Party Losing Popularity.

17th July Simple Lógia.


PP 26,2%
PSOE 23,1%
Ciudadanos 18,4%
Podemos 14,9%
IU 5,4%
UPyD 0,5%



Evolution of Podemos support:


 From 31% (December 2014)  to the present,  14,9%

More (just out)

MADRID (Reuters) – Spain’s governing People’s Party (PP) and the main opposition socialists (PSOE) have pulled well ahead of anti-establishment party Podemos ahead of national elections later this year, polls showed on Sunday.

Voter support for the center-right PP stood at 29.1 percent while the PSOE was on 25.1 percent, according to a survey by pollsters GAD3 published in Spanish daily ABC.

Support for Podemos, which transformed Spain’s political landscape in mid-June when leftist municipal coalitions it backed took power in four of the country’s five biggest cities, fell to 15.0 percent.

A second survey, by research firm Simple Logica and published on news portal larepublica.es, produced a similar result.

The findings contrast with recent polls that have shown the three parties running virtually neck-and-neck. In a survey from Metroscopia, considered the benchmark in Spain, published in El Pais on July 5, they all stood at between 21.5 and 23 percent.

Both the GAD3 and Simple Logica surveys questioned around 1,000 voters. The former was conducted between June 23 and July 8 and the latter from July 1-9.

The parliamentary elections are expected to take place in November.

(Reporting by John Stonestreet; Editing by Ros Russell)


Simple Lógia.

One of the problems about “populism” is that it evaporates when a movement is not “popular”

Some on the British left, who bathed the reflected glory of Syriza when it won a merited victory, are now fighting to the last impoverished Greek against Alexis Tsipras.

Now that the party of Pablo Inglesias  is not doing well, can we expect the same people to turn on Podemos?

Note: we cannot blame this on the fall-out from the present state of the Greek crisis as the score really began to go down in March.


Written by Andrew Coates

July 19, 2015 at 11:18 am

10 Responses

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  1. Opinion polls have clearly become a weapon of the neo liberals, not totally irrelevant but we should poke them with a very long stick, myself I would ban them during a general election campaign.

    Mick Hall

    July 19, 2015 at 1:02 pm

  2. This is another fall-out from the Greek crisis, from former leftist Tariq Ali,

    Diary Tariq Ali London Review of Books. V ol. 37 No. 15 · 30 July 2015
    pages 38-39

    “I hadn’t been thinking of voting in the EU referendum in Britain whenever it takes place. Now I will. I’ll vote ‘No’.”

    Welcome to the same side as UKIP and the Tory hard right Tariq!


    Andrew Coates

    July 19, 2015 at 3:48 pm

  3. If the “yes” camp contained no unsavoury characters, then pointing at some of the nasties in the “no” camp would be an argument. But, since I’m sure that you are not about to start proudly proclaiming your political affinity with Merkel, Schäuble, and most of Europe’s plutocracy in the “yes” camp, pointing at some of the other people in the “no” camp is *not* an argument. It is a diversion, a “look over there”, a flimsy cover for the *absence* of an argument. The case for remaining in, or leaving, the EU, is one which should be considered *in its own right*. And those who argue, as you do, for staying in and trying to change the EU need to make that case coherently and positively, showing what changes you want to see, and how you propose to go about working for them.


    July 19, 2015 at 4:30 pm

  4. “Note: we cannot blame this on the fall-out from the present state of the Greek crisis as the score really began to go down in March.”

    Actually March is just after the first SYRIZA “deal” with the Eurogroup (which happened 20 February); i.e. the interim agreement to continue the last Memorandum. This was the turning point in the Metroscopia polls also.

    Dr_Tad (@Dr_Tad)

    July 20, 2015 at 12:02 am

  5. Francis, would Britain leaving the EU help working people here or from the EU? That’s the way I would pose the question.

    Let me tell a story. I am aware of a woman from an Eastern European country who, at 30 weeks pregnant, decided to get on a plane to have her baby in Britain. In her home country, to get decent care, she would have been required to bribe various people.

    As she was waiting to board, she went into labour. Even so, she preferred to take her chances and come here, premature birth or not. Come here and build a new life for her and her family. Luckily, all went well.

    This is the kind of tale that sends Ukippers and their ilk into a rage – “foreigners abusing our NHS; they haven’t even paid into it!”

    Now, if we leave, people who can presently gain access to our NHS services will be denied. They will be denied the chance to come and build a new life, help their families back home and contribute positively to this country.

    I’ve no idea if the EU can be reformed in a way acceptable to those on the Left who are “No”. But, I do know that leaving will be to further restrict freedom of movement across Europe for working people. It will restrict those who may need help from our NHS. That’s the agenda of UKIP etc and that’s the agenda that would be carried out.

    John R

    July 20, 2015 at 5:38 pm

  6. Can’t recall where I saw it but Syriza are now polling such that they’d get an absolute majority in parliament.

  7. John I don’t know the details of your story, but I cannot see what the EU would have to do with it. The legal position regarding access to the NHS is summarised below.


    Basically, if people have been living and working here for a while, they’re entitled to treatment. Quite right, too – they’ve paid for it like anyone else. Emergency treatment is also available to everyone, which is as it should be. What has the EU to do with it?

    As for freedom of movement, it depends who you are. In the first years after the break-up of the USSR, Belarusians used to travel across the border to friends and family in, say, Lithuania at little cost. Now they need a Schengen visa.


    July 20, 2015 at 6:20 pm

  8. If we were not in the UK, then it would be a lot more difficult for people to come here in the first place and start a new life.

    John R

    July 20, 2015 at 6:29 pm

  9. Paul: have read this also in very-(since the deal) anti-Syriza articles such as in the German ‘junge Welt’, today. One interesting article in the same publication – also in general anti-Syriza – also reflected on a journalist’s mother crying when Tsipras made his speech to the parliament, crying tears of joy that he was the ‘first politician in Greece’ to apologise for the shit he’s (been made?) responsible for, and that none of the others who have done far worse to the country ever thought they needed to say sorry. This showed, so the anecdote, that Tsipras is a good man, the only one who can take on the oligarchs and the bosses, and even if he won’t or can’t win, that he is honest and will try.

    Interestingly, the anti-Syriza articles don’t mean a load of anti-KKE column inches in this Stalinistic rag. Antariysa gets a few vaguely-positive name checks though.


    July 20, 2015 at 11:18 pm

  10. As least the other ex-GDR daily, Neues deutschland, has proper reports on the Kurdish issue, (from today’s issue):

    »Der Suruc-Anschlag wird uns nicht einschüchtern«
    Demonstrationen in Deutschland gegen den IS-Terror und die Politik der türkischen Regierung”

    “Tausende Teilnehmer zeigten sich auf Kundgebungen bestürzt über das Attentat in Suruc, aber nicht entmutigt. Ihre Solidaritätsarbeit für Kurdistan wollen sie fortführen. Die nächste Hilfsbrigade nach Suruc bricht im September auf.


    Andrew Coates

    July 21, 2015 at 4:11 pm

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